| Home |
| Home | |
Selected Research Projects |
| DRI Faculty: | Timothy Brown (PI) |
| Title: | Operations of the CANSAC-CEFA Operational Forecast Facility (COFF) |
| Sponsor(s): | California and Nevada Smoke and Air Committee (CANSAC) |
| Objectives-Results: | The purpose of the CANSAC-CEFA Operations and Forecast Facilities (COFF) is to provide high-spatial resolution, value added products for fire weather, smoke dispersion and transport, fire danger and fire behavior over the two state area. Beginning in May 2004, six-hourly forecasts from the MM5 model out to 72 hours are now being made available twice daily on grids encompassing all of California and Nevada at 36, 12 and 4 km spatial resolution. The MM5 model is run on a SGI Altix 32-processor high-performance computing system. Current CANSAC membership includes the USDA Forest Service Region 5, USDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Station, Bureau of Land Management (California and Nevada), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, California Air Resources Board, California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, and San Joaquin Valley Air District. |
| DRI Faculty: | Timothy Brown (PI), Beth Hall |
| Title: | Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI) |
| Sponsor(s): | University of California, San Diego |
| Collaborator(s): | Scripps Institution of Oceanography; (Dan Cayan, Tim Barnett, Tim Brown, Tony Westerling) |
| Objectives-Results: | CEFA's role in this DOE Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative project was to incorporate climate model predictions for the period 1975 through 2089 into NFDRS algorithms and assess how fire danger in the western U.S. might change in response to regional climate change during the 21st Century. The key finding is that during the 21st Century, the model predictions indicate an increase of two to three weeks of extreme fire danger over much of the West. This increase corresponds closely with a predicted decrease in relative humidity over the same areas. The implications of this finding are that fire management agencies should prepare for increased fire activity resulting from the regional climate change, and should consider adopting policy for management plans that incorporate a changing climate. The results of this study will be published in the journal Climatic Change. |
| DRI Faculty: | Timothy Brown (PI), Beth Hall |
| Title: | Task 5: Analysis of the Southwest Monsoon in Relation to Fire Danger Characteristics |
| Sponsor(s): | Department of Interior - Bureau of Land Management |
| Objectives-Results: | This project for fire management agencies addresses the relationship between the Southwest Monsoon and fire activity in the southwestern U.S. It is known that fire occurrence generally decreases with the onset of the monsoon, but the specific impacts of moisture thresholds (e.g., dewpoint or relative humidity), on this decrease are not well understood. The primary study objective is to examine the role and impacts of atmospheric moisture on fire occurrence across the monsoon region. The project will benefit fire weather forecasters and management by providing quantitative information on the monsoon and fire activity that can be used as a decision-support tool. |
| DRI Faculty: | Timothy Brown (PI), Beth Hall |
| Title: | Task 4: Utilization and Evaluation of Climate Information and Forecasts for Fire Management |
| Sponsor(s): | Department of Interior - Bureau of Land Management |
| Collaborator(s): | Scripps Institution of Oceanography |
| Objectives-Results: | This study involves a verification analysis of the Experimental Climate Prediction Center regional spectral model (RSM). Monthly and seasonal forecasts of fire weather elements and fire danger indices are compared to Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) across the western U.S in order to assess the forecast skill of the model. The project will benefit fire weather forecasters and management by quantitatively identifying the model strengths and weaknesses as a decision-support tool, and will benefit modelers by providing forecast performance details that can be used for further model development. |